Business Data
Indonesia shipping report Q2 2013 : includes 5-year forcasts to 2017
Since our last quarterly shipping report, we have become more optimistic about Indonesia's macroeconomic outlook in 2013. With the US, Europe, and China looking at economic rebounds of differing intensities, the external environment has become more favourable. After a tough year in 2012 the global mining industry is looking more upbeat, with key metal commodity prices likely to improve. While we had expected mining investment to take a hit in 2013, we now think it will be quite resilient. Although we are concerned over Indonesia's increasingly protectionist stance on mining (it plans to ban unprocessed mineral exports in 2014 as a way of ensuring that more value-added refining and processing remains within the country) this is not yet making a serious dent in FDI inflows. Bearing these factors in mind, we now forecast that after 6.2% growth in 2012, Indonesian GDP will advance by a further 6.1% in 2013 (higher than our previous forecast of 5.6%). In fact, over the next five years annual GDP growth is set to average 6.4%, confirming the country's status as one of the top performers in Asia. As far as the shipping sector is concerned, we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see some evidence of progress on this front.
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Indonesia shipping report Q1 2016 : includes 5-year forecasts to 2019 | en |