Business Data
Global macro outlook - december 2015 - unfinished business in 2016
As 20 15 comes to an end, and 20 16 comes into focus , there remains s ig nificant unfinis hed bus ines s in the g lobal economy. While 20 16 will s ee hig her real GDP g rowth (3.0%) than the previous two years (2.7-2.8%), reflecting more expans ive activity in s everal key countries and a revers al of contraction in others , this will s till 'feel' s ubdued, with g lobal inves tment and trade g rowth s till s trug g ling and as s et prices looking ripe for a correction. The US Federal Res erve is embarking on a rate hiking cycle but the extent to which it will g o is s till uncertain g iven s haky g lobal conditions conflicting with s eeming ly s trong domes tic activity. China's two-s teps -forward-one-s tep-back reform prog ramme has s o far been characteris ed by a s lowdown in activity rather than an outrig ht cras h in the economy. But the mis s teps s hown by Beijing in the equity market fias co and s hift in currency reg ime in the s ummer of 20 15 provide s ome evidence that official policy is far from all-powerful, and there remain s ig nificant ris ks to the Chines e economy in the year ahead. And for many emerg ing markets which s o
far have bent but not broken under the s train of a chang ing g lobal economic s tructure and tig htening US policy, rock bottom looks to be in sight in the coming year, but the pros pects of recovery are muddled at bes t.
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