Article

Application of gravity models with a fixed component in the international trade flows of coal, iron ore and crude oil

---

As freight transport flows grow continuously, developing better quantitative models for forecasting future trade flows becomes more important. Trade flows can be estimated by discrete choice theory, leading to gravity models formulations. At a given point in time, trade flows may also be affected by long-term contracts or simply trading habits. This leads to situations where only a fraction of the market is subject to choice. In this article, we extend the traditional gravity model such that a fixed amount is separated from observed trade flows and only residuals are subject to discrete choice. We apply our model on coal, iron ore and oil seaborne trade flows and demonstrate that the proposed construction results in a significantly better fit for the observed data. This observation is important in predicting future trade volumes.

---

Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

Original Article

No. Panggil

ATC LO VIE a

Penerbit

Germany : Taylor and Francis., 2015

Deskripsi Fisik

18 p.

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

-

Klasifikasi

LO

Tipe Isi

-

Tipe Media

-

Tipe Pembawa

online resource

Edisi

-

Subjek

Gravity model
trade flow modeling
coal seaborne trade flows
iron ore seaborne trade flows
oil seaborne trade flows

Info Detail Spesifik

-

Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Michael Viertel

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

Komentar

---

Anda harus masuk sebelum memberikan komentar