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BI To Hike Rates Before End-2017 To Safeguard Macro Stability
We maintain our expectations for BI to hike its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 5.00% before end-2017 as inflation continues to pick up, posing downside risks to the IDR as real yields head in favour of the greenback. Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate (7-day RR rate) unchanged at 4.75% at its monthly monetary policy meeting on 19-20 July. At the same time, the corresponding deposit and lending facility rates were also kept constant at 4.00% and 5.50%, respectively. According to BI's statement, the decision came amid a weaker-than-expected economic growth recovery, while inflationary pressures remain manageable. Given that the IDR remains stable against the USD, we believe that BI has the policy room to keep rates on hold over the near-term. That said, we maintain our expectations for BI to hike rates by 25bps to 5.00% before end-2017 as inflation continues to pick up and downside pressure on the rupiah re-emerges as real yield spreads head in US's favour.
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