Business Data
Political Clouds To Gather In The Run-Up To 2019 Elections
Conservative Islamist groups have taken a swing at the Jokowi administration again, this time alleging it of sympathising and harbouring the communists, as well as clamping down on Islamic organisations. We believe that such attempts to undermine the government will persist in the run-up to the 2019 general election s as the hard-liners push for a greater degree of political Islam in the country. We expect political risks in Indonesia to continue to rise in the run-up to the 2019 general elections as hard-line Islamic groups will likely attempt to undermine the government repeatedly in order to push for a greater political role for Islam in the country. This could result in more factionalism within the President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo-led coalition and therefore increased instances of horse-trading and political compromises, hampering reform momentum and policymaking in the country. Social stability is also at risk as Islamist groups have a tendency to rally their supporters en masse and also allegedly propagate rumours and fake news to achieve their agenda. For now, we are maintaining Indonesia's short-term political risk score at 72.9 out of 100, but will look to downgrade its standing if we observe deepening fault lines within the coalition or a rising intensity of social unrest.
Judul | Edisi | Bahasa |
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Indonesia operational risk report Q4 2016 : includes the BMI operational risk index | en |