Business Data
Global industry overview - container shipping overview Q4 2010
Weakening consumer demand in the US coupled with aus terity packag es in Europe is likely to s ee the s treng th of the year-on-year (y-o-y) recovery in the container shipping sector in H110 s lip in H210 and 2011, as box lines traditional demand markets tighten their belts . Although we do not expect volumes to slip to the bad days of the 20 0 9 downturn, the recovery will s low, meaning that for many carriers and ports it will take long er for throughput volumes to recover to the levels s een prior to the downturn in 2008 . Althoug h BMI is fearful of potential overcapacity s till in the market, es pecially as volumes beg in to slip and a huge new-build orderbook waits in the wing s , we note that container lines now have experience of operating in a toug h market and have a number of s trategies , such as slow-s teaming and idling vessels , in place to weather difficult times . We believe that carriers have benefited from the uptick in volumes witnes s ed in H110 and through careful management of capacity and rate increases are on cours e for a return to profit in 20 10 . Lines will, however, need to continue to manag e both rate levels and capacity at the end of 20 10 and into 20 11 if they wis h to remain in profit as volumes are expected to fall. To mitig ate this ris k, BMI believes that althoug h lines will continue to keep their expos ure on the major routes of Trans pacific and Asia-Europe, they will als o increas e their coverage in new regions that offer potential g rowth; BMI believes Intra-As ia to be an obvious candidate.