Article
Scenario-based resilience assessment framewor kforcritical infrastructure systems:Casestudy for seismic resilience of seaports
A numberofmetricsinthepasthavebeenproposedandnumericallyimplementedtoassesstheoverall performance oflargesystemsduringnaturaldisastersandtheirrecoveryintheaftermathoftheevents. Among suchperformancemeasures,resilienceisareliablemetric.Thispaperproposesaprobabilistic frameworkforscenario-basedresilienceassessmentofinfrastructuresystems.Themethodaccountsfor uncertainties intheprocessincludingthecorrelationoftheearthquakeintensitymeasures,fragility assessment ofstructuralcomponents,estimationofrepairrequirements,therepairprocess,and finally the servicedemands.Theproposedmethodisappliedtoahypotheticalseaportterminalandthesystem level performanceoftheseaportisassessedusingvariousperformancemetrics.Resultsofthisanalysis haveshownthatmediumtolargeseismiceventsmaysignificantly disrupttheoperationofseaports right aftertheeventandtherecoveryprocessmaytakemonths.Theproposedframeworkwillenable port stakeholderstosystematicallyassessthemost-likelyperformanceofthesystemduringexpected future earthquakeevents.