Article
Long-term container throughput forecast and equipment planning: the case of Bangkok Port
Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims to forecast inbound and outbound container throughput for Bangkok Port to 2041 and uses the results to inform the future planning and management of the port’s container terminal. Design/methodology/approach – The data used cover a period of 16 years (192 months of observations). Data sources include the Bank of Thailand and the Energy Policy and Planning Office. Causeand-effect forecasting is adopted for predicting future container throughput by using a vector error correction
model (VECM). Findings – Forecasting future container throughput in Bangkok Port will benefit port planning. Various economic factors affect the volume of both inbound and outbound containers through the port. Three cases (scenarios) of container terminal expansion are analyzed and assessed, on the basis of which an optimal scenario is identified.