We propose a new approach to forecasting total port container throughput: to generate forecasts based on each of the port’s terminals and aggregate them into the total throughput forecast. We forecast the demand for total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport Tanjung Priok Port, employing SARIMA, the additive and multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters (MSHW) and the Vector E…
This paper presents an integrated forecasting model based on the TEI@I methodology for forecasting demand for port logistics services – specifically, port container throughput. The model analyzes port logistics time series data and other information in several steps. In the first step, several econometric models are built to forecast the linear segment of port logistics time series. In the se…
We apply intervention analysis to examine the impact of the financial tsunami on container throughputs for Hong Kong port quantitatively. Evidences from ARIMA-intervention model show that the real impact of the financial tsunami on Hong Kong port happened earlier than the observable fall in the throughput data, namely significant impact started around May 2008, while the forecasting model with …
Containerization is one of the important factors for Thailand’s economics. However, forecasts of container throughput growth and development of Bangkok Port, the significant port of Thailand, have been scant and the findings are divergence. Moreover, the existing literature emphasizes only two forecasting methods, namely time series and regression analysis. The aim of this paper is to explore…