Reduction of Fuel Subsidies Will Lower Growth In Short Term A key development in June has prompted BMI to revise its economic outlook for Indonesia this year. On June 22 the government raised the prices of subsidised premium petrol and diesel by 44.4% and 22.2% respectively. This led to an inflation spike (the annual rate of inflation rose to 8.6% in July) and to a tightening of monetary policy…
With both economic growth and foreign trade activity gathering pace moderately in 2015, we expect activity levels at Indonesia's main ports to grow. But there will be leads and lags, with some short-term weaknesses in freight demand recovering later in the year. Growth will not be uniform. At the port of Tanjung Priok cargo handled will rise more rapidly than in 2014, with expansion in the 3-6%…
With both economic growth and foreign trade activity gathering pace moderately in 2015, we expect activity levels at Indonesia's main ports to grow. But there will be leads and lags, with some short-term weaknesses in freight demand recovering later in the year. Growth will not be uniform. At the port of Tanjung Priok cargo handled will rise more rapidly than in 2014, with expansion in the 3-6%…
Our outlook for the Indonesian economy remains unchanged since our last quarterly report. BMI continues to forecast GDP growth of 6.1% in 2013, rising to 6.4% in 2014. The big driver of this growth is domestic consumer spending, which represents around 55% of GDP. Coupled with good fundamentals and gradual improvements in the operating environment as a result of government reforms, this has giv…
In 2009 BMI believes that throughput trends at Indonesia's ports will follow the pattern of the country's trade sector. We predict that both imports and exports will fall by 9.5 percent in 2009. A recovery is set to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to increase by 9%. An average yearly growth of 10.2% between 2011 and 2013 is predicted.
We are expecting activity at Indonesia's main ports to be positive and broadly comparable to last year, with growth of cargo handled ranging roughly between 3% and 8%. Of particular interest to the bulk shipping sector is the fate of the government's existing ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores. The Constitutional Court upheld the ban in December, but there have been some signs that t…
We are expecting activity at Indonesia's main ports to be positive and broadly comparable to last year, with growth of cargo handled ranging roughly between 3% and 8%. Of particular interest to the bulk shipping sector is the fate of the government's existing ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores. The Constitutional Court upheld the ban in December, but there have been some signs that t…
Since our last quarterly shipping report, we have become more optimistic about Indonesia's macroeconomic outlook in 2013. With the US, Europe, and China looking at economic rebounds of differing intensities, the external environment has become more favourable. After a tough year in 2012 the global mining industry is looking more upbeat, with key metal commodity prices likely to improve. While w…
Indonesia is growing strongly in 2012, despite the recessionary trends in the world economy. BMI believes expansion is driven by the healthy state of the country's large internal market, its solid banking system, and various other factors such as its diversified exports (commodities and manufactures). The economy remained dynamic in 2011, and in 2012 we expect it to continue to push ahead. This…
The shipping industry entered 2009 in a state of crisis. All shipping sectors had been hit hard, with the dry bulk sector struggling to recover from a plunge in November 2008 that took the Baltic Dry Index to a nine-year low. Rumours persisted that containers were being shipped for a little as US$200 and that the only thing keeping the liquid bulk sector afloat was that tankers were being used …
The shipping industry entered 2009 in a state of crisis. All shipping sectors had been hit hard, with the dry bulk sector struggling to recover from a plunge in November 2008 that took the Baltic Dry Index to a nine-year low. Rumours persisted that containers were being shipped for a little as US$200 and that the only thing keeping the liquid bulk sector afloat was that tankers were being used …
At the moment, Indonesia is one of the few economies showing capacity to buck the trend towards a global economic slowdown. The economy remained dynamic in 2011, and in 2012 we expect it to continue to push ahead. This is good news for the ports and shipping industry. While net exports may falter a little as global demand cools, domestic consumption and investment look resilient. BMI now foreca…
Both of Indonesia's main ports are set to experience positive growth in 2016. Consumer demand and economic growth are set to bolster the country's shipping services, although the ongoing slowdown in China's economy could hold Indonesia back from maximising its potential over the next couple of years.
Both of Indonesia's main ports are set to experience positive growth in 2016. Consumer demand and economic growth are set to bolster the country's shipping services, although the ongoing slowdown in China's economy could hold Indonesia back from maximising its potential over the next couple of years.
Both of Indonesia's main ports are set to experience positive growth in 2016. Consumer demand and economic growth are set to bolster the country's shipping services, although the ongoing slowdown in China's economy could hold Indonesia back from maximising its potential over the next couple of years.
Our shipping and ports forecast for 2015 shows growth rates picking up pace slightly at the port of Tanjung Priok, while they will decelerate a little at the smaller facility at Palembang. This reflects the slightly mixed freight demand picture as the Indonesian economy is set to slow marginally, while foreign trade picks up pace compared to 2014. Over the medium- to long-term, we continue to b…
In 2015, we anticipate healthy growth for both of Indonesia's two main ports as the contractions of recent years become a thing of the past. Slightly neutering growth is the fact that key trade partner China is set to experience a continuing slowdown in growth, but consumer demand is set to grow at a healthy level over our forecast period and beyond.
In 2015, we anticipate healthy growth for both of Indonesia's two main ports as the contractions of recent years become a thing of the past. Slightly neutering growth is the fact that key trade partner China is set to experience a continuing slowdown in growth, but consumer demand is set to grow at a healthy level over our forecast period and beyond.
We have trimmed our growth forecasts for Indonesia in 2012 and 2013, but only marginally so. BMI's view is that the slowdown in the global economy, and in Chinese growth which will for the first time in the last decade come in at under 8%, will have a knock-on effect on Indonesia. On the other hand, the country's domestic economy is in fairly rude health, with consumer spending looking solid an…