Article
Maritime Business Review
Purpose – This study aims to develop an assessment methodology using a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the failure probability of oil tanker shipping firms.
Design/methodology/approach – This paper proposes a bankruptcy prediction model by applying the hybrid of logistic regression and Bayesian probabilistic networks.
Findings – The proposed model shows its potential of contributing to a powerful tool to predict financial bankruptcy of shipping operators, and provides important insights to the maritime community as to what performance measures should be taken to ensure the shipping companies’ financial soundness under dynamic
environments. Research limitations/implications – The model and its associated variables can be expanded to
include more factors for an in-depth analysis in future when the detailed information at firm level becomes available. Practical implications – The results of this study can be implemented to oil tanker shipping firms as a prediction tool for bankruptcy rate.
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