This paper proposes a bivariate long term fuzzy inference system for time series forecasting task in the field of freight market. Fuzzy time series methods are applied by many scholars and it is broadly accepted pattern recognition and forecasting tool. Previous studies mainly establish algorithms for high frequency time series data such as daily and monthly intervals. The proposed model perfor…
This paper proposes to establish a long term shipping freight index for dry cargo transportation and investigates its particulars among the cyclic fluctuations. Many scholars investigated dry cargo shipping markets and some of them attempted to construct a composite index of freight rates. Although, several critiques are indicated about the method of composition, these indices depicted long ter…
The world bulk shipping market has been in a peak period since 2003, and this has lasted an incredibly long time considering that the markets are much more complex than before. This paper investigates the characteristics of volatility in dry bulk freight rates of different vessel sizes (capesize, panamax and handysize). The daily returns of freight rate indices of three different types of bulk …
This paper demonstrates that the structure of ocean container freight rates has become more complex. A growing number of surcharges are being imposed by the carriers on their customers, surcharges that are not only adding significant extra costs but are highly variable over time. These elements are examined based on a data set on export rates from ports on the Northern European Range that have …
The objective of this paper is to explore how container freight rates vary globally and regionally and over time. This is achieved in part by considering freight rates as a measure of economic distance. Unlike absolute distance, which is invariant between locations, economic distance is a relative measure, but like absolute distance it can be mapped. In this paper, the geographical distribution…
The behavior of shipping freight (charter) rates and the timing of shipping contracts affect the transportation costs of charterers and the operating cash flows of shipowners. Although the literature has established macroeconomic determinants of shipping freight rates, there has been no systematic investigation of microeconomic determinants of freight rates and the delivery time of chartered sh…
A cross section panel model is applied to estimate the effect that the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has on container freight rates for a sample of six major container liner shipping routes during 2009 to 2011. The estimated coefficient of HHI is non-positive and statistically insignificant, indicating that higher concentration level does not lead to high price and the container liner shippi…
This study introduces a state-of-the-art volatility forecasting method for container shipping freight rates. Over the last decade, the container shipping industry has become very unpredictable. The demolition of the shipping conferences system in 2008 for all trades calling a port in the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis in 2009 have affected the container shipping freight mar…